Friday, September 28, 2012
Sunday, May 6, 2012
NIFTY bearish below 5,130
| Wkly Tech Analysis: Bias to remain bearish below 5,130 |
| Among the index stocks, Hero MotoCorp slumped almost 10% to Rs 1,981, and Maruti plunged over 8% to Rs 1,283 |
| Rex Cano / Mumbai May 05, 2012, 23:59 IST |
The markets, as expected, began the week with hopes of a counter rally by the bulls. We saw the Sensex touch a high of 17,432, but eventually the gains turned into significant losses by the end of the week as technically the momentum oscillators were not supportive. |
The Sensex slumped to a low of 16,777 amid heavy losses in auto, banking and capital goods shares. The BSE benchmark eventually ended the week with a loss of 356 points at 16,831.
According to the monthly Fibonacci charts, Sensex has near support around 16,700, a break below which could see the index dip towards the quarterly support level, which is around 16,200. The yearly chart also indicates some support around 16,670-odd levels. On the upside, the Sensex needs to sustain above 16,980.
Next week, the Sensex may seek support around 16,580-16,425, while it may face resistance around 17,080-17,240.
The NSE Nifty moved in a range of over 200 points. The index touched a high of 5,280, and then tumbled to a low of 5,071. The index finally settled with a significant loss of 122 points at 5,209.
The Nifty has broken below its 200-day DMA (daily moving average) on the daily charts after more than three months. The momentum oscillators continue to remain fairly bearish, hence we may see some more losses going ahead.
Select key momentum oscillators like the MACD and Stochastic Slow are both negative, on the daily and weekly charts, hence chances of a further downside are higher.
The near-term bias is likely to be negative as long as Nifty remains below 5,130 — which is the lower end of the Bollinger Band. The nearest support for Nifty is at 5,020, below which we could see fresh weakness with the next major support at 4,835.
On the positive front, if the Nifty is able to sustain above 5,130, then we could see a counter rally all the way up to 5,290-odd levels.
Next week, the Nifty is likely to seek support around 5,005-4,960, while it may face resistance around 5,165-5,215.
Sunday, March 11, 2012
SUCCESS A WAY OF LIFE
11 MAR, 2012, 10.38AM IST,
Lesson's from AM Naik and L&T's leadership change
Managing leadership succession is very challenging for all organisations, tougher for more complex entities. Unfortunately, in several cases, neither the incumbent nor the board wakes up to address this challenge early on.
Typically, in their hurry to grow the organisation, they either forget or do not devote adequate attention to such a strategically important matter before it becomes a crisis. The leadership change at L&T has attracted a lot of attention precisely for the same reason. There are several lessons from this experience.
Every Lap Counts
Leadership succession is like a relay race. Choice of the runners for each lap depends on the challenges ahead, the first and last runners being the fastest. There has to be adequate preparation and perfect understanding between runners about the timing of passing the baton.
The person handing over the baton should feel confident that the person receiving it has caught hold of it. The two runners have to have perfect understanding between them about each other. In a well-trained context, this happens in split seconds. Played out in slow motion, the same thing happens in leadership succession in corporations.
In this highly professionalised organisation, the board and management have always been aware of the need for finding a successor to Mr Naik, who is already 70. In fact, media reports that appeared about two years ago had described the dilemma that the company was going to face.
It is unfortunate that the board did not do much then or earlier about choosing the runner for the next lap with all the appropriate capabilities, and prepare the ground for a smooth change over. This was in spite of the fact that the entire team of executive directors was over 60 then!
Start Early
The board should have started the process of identifying the successor at least five years back with a definite deadline, and intensified the search especially when it was clear then itself that there was no obvious choice available.
The company would have been better off with a younger top leadership to steer the organisation to achieve the 25 percent compound growth planned in the next several years. Such an approach would have guaranteed smooth transition of leadership at L&T, with an over lapping phase for the baton change to be trouble free.
Doubles Game
The current decision to split the responsibilities between chairman and managing director appears to be a convenient decision. The new duo of chairman and MD/CEO is going to face sharing the responsibilities of shaping the destiny of the organisation. It may not be easy for the new entrant to flourish when Mr Naik's shadow continues to loom large as the executive chairman.
Given that Mr Naik and Mr Venkatraman will play a doubles game for the next five years, it is critical for them both as well as the board to objectively discuss the roles they will actually play independently and jointly. The new MD should not become a figure head
Prepare Next Runner
Mr Naik has built L&T into a giant organisation, fighting several odds. He has a larger than life image. In such a scenario, it is for the incumbent to remind himself of the trusteeship role he is playing and prepare the organisation for the next leader. It appears that Mr Naik did not do it early enough.
By asking Mr Naik to continue as the executive chairman, the board has signalled its lack of preparedness for a change which is inevitable for anyone. Many leaders in business and politics do not believe that their time for retirement would ever come; they tend to think that they alone are capable of running subsequent laps. They do not recognise the need to prepare the next lap runner early on. Mr Naik and the board failed in their trusteeship responsibility.
Insecurity of Retirement
The longer a leader stays and the bigger the success, the greater is likely to be the challenge for his departure. Individual egos play a dominant role in refusing to accept realities. This is where some of the basic teachings of this country such as detachment, contentment and feeling of duty become all the more helpful. This is when leaders show their maturity.
National Institution
L&T is a national institution, respected and regarded for its professionalism by multiple stakeholders. The top team, representing all the stakeholders has a responsibility to ensure that it starts preparing for the next lap runner now itself. As trustees, they have to constantly remind themselves that no individual is indispensable.
(The author is Thomas Schmidheiny Chair Professor of Family Business & Wealth Management,
Sunday, March 27, 2011
Best weekly rally- a boon ??
The bottoms are intact for now despite of the global negative news. The strength of Nifty is now better than a week ago and the whole scenario is changed the technicals for now as good bottom support is at 5400 and the 5500 is a good support where bulls can take advantage of buying again on average cost. The strength gained can be even extended upto 5440 level. So the Bears have to wait for a longer period than anticipated for yearly low cuts of Nifty and its major supporting stocks.
The Bears can say thanks to the rising crude prices, Libya crisis and the Fukushima nuclear crisis. As a matter of fact now the Japan nuclear crisis is more of an environmental concern than of economic concern. The economic impact of the Tsunami can be seen after 15th April, so that the testing time to japans ability to face and come out of this grave crisis is tested against the burgeoning power crisis and the exhausted inventory of the industry. The devastation effect was on the infrastructure especially power crisis. This is seen as immediate impact on the Japan’s automobile industry and their ancillary.
In India the growth indicators are now favouring the Bulls but the future is looking bleak as the inflation is stubborn to yield below 8% and the Govt spending likely to be eased. The political situation is becoming fluid and the populist support to Congress is decreasing due to scams and the gratification charges. The Central govt is not strong to make any big policy changes that can add value to markets other than the GST, banking amendment bill. The serious concern is now on the survival of the Manmohan Singh ability as PM to lead a Govt. with little damage to populist measures initiated and the corruption charges being faced.
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